Sony Delays Playstation 3

As a result of problems related to the mass production of a key component of its Blu-ray DVD player, Sony (SNE) will delay the European launch of its next generation video game console, the PlayStation 3 (PS3). Sony will also reduce the number of PS3 units immediately available in both the U.S. and Japan.

In the U.S., the ps3 will launch on November 17th, with approximately 400,000 consoles available for sale. The U.S. launch will come almost a week after the Japanese launch which will consist of merely 100,000 units.

Sony's PlayStation 3 is the successor to the PlayStation 2, the world's most popular (and as recently as July, the world's best selling) video game console.

The Number That Really Matters

The fact that there will only be 400,000 ps3 units available for sale in the United States on November 17th is totally unimportant. The launch date itself is unimportant. What matters is how many units will be available for sale in mid to late December.

Sony claims it will have 1 million to 1.2 million consoles available for sale by December 31st. I think it's safe to assume they don't plan to have many arrive between December 26th and December 31st. So, let's assume there will be at least a million ps3 consoles available for sale in the U.S. by Christmas.

Will that be enough to put a PlayStation in the living room of every household that wants one?

No. There will almost certainly be many people who have to go without a ps3 for Christmas, despite being willing to pay the very high price Sony is asking. But, that's nothing new. Other consoles (including the Xbox 360) have been launched without an adequate number of units immediately available for sale.

This isn't like failing to get enough Glad trash bags on store shelves. Once the console has launched, limited availability shouldn't cause many people to switch their planned purchase. If they want it and it's out, they'll wait for it.

A delay is much worse than a mere shortage. There's a promise (and a tangible product) behind a console that has already launched. So, very few people in the U.S. or Japan who planned to buy a ps3 are likely to change their minds because of a Christmas shortage no matter how severe.

The Things That Really Matter

The success of any gaming platform is largely based on five factors:

Available Titles

Relative Launch Date

Price

Predecessor's Installed Base

Technology

Of these five, technology is by far the least important factor. The four most important factors (available titles, relative launch date, price, and predecessor's installed base) are difficult to separate. Clearly, having a predecessor with a large installed base (such as the PS2) can be tremendously beneficial, if you get satisfactory marks in the other three areas (titles, launch date, and price).

Predecessor's Installed Base

The PlayStation 3 dominates when it comes to having a predecessor with a large installed base. So, how does it score in the other three areas?

In terms of available titles, the ps3 scores as well as any of its competitors, if not better. However, none of the three consoles (Xbox 360, ps3, or Wii) does very well in this regard. Unfortunately, the titles are likely to be somewhat segregated by console. There will be quality games on each system; but, almost no one will buy all three. Simply put, there will be some games exclusive to each console that a lot of people would really love to play but can't.

Also, there's the danger that both the ps3 and the Xbox 360 will be seen as the more adult and less casual consoles. Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony have Nintendo to blame for this but, let's put that issue aside for now.

Relative Launch Date

Returning to the list of factors that determine a console's success, let's consider the launch date issue. Sony clearly has a bit of a problem in Europe, because it will have one less Christmas season than both the Xbox 360 and the Wii. Some analysts think Sony will lose no more than a few hundred thousand console sales to substitutions. If that's true, lost revenue might be in the hundreds of millions rather than the billions.

Strong sales of the Xbox in Europe during the Christmas season would be a very bad indication for Sony. The combined price of an Xbox and a ps3 is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the two consoles are far more similar to each other than they are to the Wii. As a result, while some European Wii sales might be recoverable by Sony at a later date, because individuals will choose to buy the Wii first and the ps3 later, very few Xbox 360 sales would be recoverable. Essentially, every Xbox sold in Europe this Christmas is a ps3 that will never be born.

Three Separate Markets

The U.S., Japan, and Europe are really three very different markets. It's quite possible you could have a console that is very successful in one market and yet unable to get any real momentum in another.

Before this delay, I felt strongly that Europe was the market where the ps3 could come closest to duplicating the performance of the PS2 in terms of market share. There's a long-term danger that Microsoft will gain market share in the U.S. and Nintendo will gain market share in both the U.S. and Japan.

Obviously, Europe isn't as well defined a market as either the U.S. or Japan. So, it's much harder to predict how a certain type of console or a certain type of game will go over there. The U.S. and Japan are very clearly defined game markets, largely because they have very clearly defined consumer cultures in general and entertainment cultures in particular.

So, what does the ps3 delay mean for Sony's future in Europe? It's hard to say. I'm more interested in seeing what the installed base of each next generation console will look like in the American and Japanese markets after Christmas 2007, when we'll have the first real chance to predict how this round of the console wars will play out.

Of course, there are some predictions that seem pretty safe even now. For instance, it seems safe to say Sony will lose worldwide market share. Simply put, the ps3 won't be able to duplicate the market share dominance of the PS2.

So, most likely we're talking about Sony's PS3 falling somewhere north of catastrophic failure and south of market share gains. Although I think both of these scenarios are extremely unlikely, catastrophic failure is more likely, simply because improving upon the PS2's market share seems a near impossibility given the much tougher competition this time around.

Is there a real risk that the PS3 might end up being a catastrophic failure? I don't think so, simply because of the number of PS2 systems still out there. Price combined with solid competition on both of Sony's flanks is the only thing that could cause such a failure. If the price prevents widespread acceptance of the system, third party publisher support would be a problem down the line. Nintendo doesn't need a lot of third party support. Sony does.

Although I do think Sony is doing serious harm to its PlayStation line by insisting upon including Blu-ray and charging a ridiculous price, I don't think any amount of managerial ineptitude is likely to cause the catastrophic failure of a successor to such a dominant console as the PS2.

Price

If price isn't the elephant in the room, it should be. Most of the articles I read about the recently announced PS3 delay / production scale-down didn't say much about the pricing of the PS3. That's a mistake especially, because several articles mentioned the laptop battery recall, which has nothing to do with the PS3 and very little to do with Sony (it has everything to do with lithium-ion batteries irrespective of their manufacturer).

The PS3's price is a big problem. One that might have manifested itself in poor Christmas sales, if the number of units available for sale had approached the expected demand. For now, Sony is planning on having so few units available in the U.S. by Christmas that the launch will go well even if the PS3 is ultimately a failure. Sony claims it will have 6 million units by the end of its fiscal year. A few analysts are skeptical, but Sony is sticking to that line.

In the weeks ahead, expect Sony to make a big deal about the fact that it will actually make more PS3 units available by the end of December than the number of Xbox 360s Microsoft had made available by the same time the year before. It's a valid point. But, it omits two key facts. The PS3 is launching after the Xbox 360 and there are more PS2 owners out there who will want to trade up for the new system.

Since the PS3 is launching after the Xbox 360, no one is waiting around to see what the alternative will look like. They already know what the Xbox 360 is, what it can do, and what (some of) the games available for it are. As soon as the PS3 launches, the comparisons can begin. That wasn't possible when the Xbox 360 launched and everybody knew the PS3 was on its way.

The second reason why no parallel exists between the demand for Xbox 360s at launch and the demand for PS3s at launch is simply that there are more PS2s out there. As a result, Sony having as many units available by Christmas as Microsoft had the year before would be a lot like Gillette having as many new razors available as Schick had produced the year before. The difference in market share obliterates any possible comparison.

So, even though I think the PS3 is far too expensive going into the Christmas season, I'm quite sure that fact won't be evident in the sales numbers, because there will be a severe PS3 shortage throughout 2006. Even if the PlayStation 3 is too expensive, it will look like it's selling well, because there simply won't be enough of them produced in 2006.

Why am I so convinced the PS3 is priced too high?

The PS3 is too expensive to be a Christmas gift. Around Christmas, a lot of these consoles are bought by parents as gifts for their kids. Parents are willing to pay a lot for them, because they're a huge one-time item for the kid (and the parents have been hearing about it since well before the launch). But, the prices likely to be charged in 2006 for the PS3 are simply beyond what parents are willing to spend.

It's not an issue of how much consumers have to spend versus the value they're getting. It's an issue of being psychologically unprepared for paying this kind of price for any gift.

It may be a price older gamers are willing to pay to get a PS3 for themselves. But, it's not a price parents will be willing to spend on their kids.

Geoff Gannon writes a daily value investing blog and produces a twice weekly (half hour) value investing podcast at: http://www.gannononinvesting.com

Certification Home Yoga 20

Hush Mommy and Daddy - My Ears Are Open!

Dear Parents and guardians, if you could only hear what I hear your child repeating. I'm sure it was unconscious on your part when you first said what you said. But I'd like to say that little children are SPONGES. They absorb everything that you are saying, doing and putting out there.

The sad truth is that they are already beginning to believe harmful words, concepts, and thoughts. They begin coping with words, and thoughts they received from you. Do you want to hear what you, their teachers and others have been saying in your kid's ears?

You won't believe it!! From a four and half year old. I can't stop sucking my thumb because an invisible witch put a curse on me, that's why I can't STOP!! I stopped my children's yoga class to ask her who told her that? My daycare teacher. I then took the time to explain to this beautiful, bewildered, and now frightened little girl that there was no such thing as witches and she sucks her thumb because it feels comfortable. I explained once you don't want to suck your thumb anymore you'll stop.

From a four year old. What were you thinking!!? That was stupid!! When I asked her if she needed help with her knots in her shoe laces.

From a slim and beautiful four year old girl. I'm too fat already. I can't eat too much.

From another three and a half year old who said to another child when she wasn't going alone with his idea. Keep it up!! And I'm going to SMACK YOU from here to infinity!!

From a pair of brother and sister. Our Mom calls us DUMB. I asked them what does she say. That was a very dumb idea!! You're acting dumb!! I told each of them that they were not dumb and sometimes parents make mistakes.

From a tough and beautiful three year old boy as we were saying affirmations such as I love my mouth, I love my nose. He interrupted to tell me he doesn't like his nose because he thinks he has a BIG nose. I told him that everyone has a special and unique nose and that his nose was perfect and beautiful nose.

When I had a group of all girls --one said Hey guys. I think that this is misused and we need to bring in the thought of using the word GIRLS even among ourselves, moms and friends.

Do you want to hear the favorite story of this beautiful four year old girl? The prince comes and rescues the little princess, so that they can get married, and she will be taken to his castle, where she will wait for him to return.

Here are a few humorous things too. When some of the children learned that my name is yoga Kat. They asked me yoga Kat, where is your tail

A petite beauty boldly announced that she has a boy! You mean a baby brother? No I have a boy. You mean a boyfriend? She giggled, squealed and nodded her head. How do you know he's your boyfriend? I asked. Her response without hesitation- I kiss him.

From a shy little girl who's hand I was holding when we were about to run in a circle. yoga Kat, you don't have to hold my hand because I can run as fast as cheetah. With that she proceeded to show me how fast she could run. And it was fast!!

The little children were encircling themselves with the puffy mats and saying they were building houses. But one little girl said, I'm building a garbage can!!

At the end of a class I was saying to each of the children You did a GOOD JOB. And I love YOU THIS MUCH. One of the little girls noticed that there was one girl who had already run to get her shoes before I made my statement. So she escorted me over to where the other girl was sitting and said to me yoga Kat can you tell so and so that you love her too? With that I said, I love YOU THIS MUCH!!

So remember that you have small ears wide open moms and dads. Think about what you are going to say and about to transmit. It's understood that it's done unconsciously. This is a friendly reminder to become more conscious of your words for your children's sake.

yoga Kat--aka Katheryn Hoban is a yoga teacher and reiki Master teacher with twelve years experience. She teaches children's yoga ages 3-6, and Adults privately in NJ. She is the author of the book -Masters of ConsciousnessA Guide book for the Cosmic Traveler. She has created a children's affirmation CD (ages 3-6) and an affirmation CD for adults. yoga Kat is available for speaking or writing and can be reached at or 201 970-9340 or go to http://www.thecircleofpeace.com and sign up for yoga Kat's newsletter and See me reading from my book on youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDd_JyIActw

Yoga Cl London

What's On Fire Here?

One morning a few days ago, I found myself filled with determination interwoven with anxiety. I had a tremendous list of things that needed to get done that day. Needed. Really. Yet the truth of the matter was that I knew - down deep inside even though I wasn't acknowledging it yet - that the chances that I'd get it all done that day were vanishingly slim. Nonetheless, I was convinced I needed ... well, you get the picture.

And I'd be willing to bet that you've experienced that same feeling. Whether it's at work (with your boss expecting one thing, your co-workers waiting for something else, and an employee at your office door with a crisis) or at home (where the laundry is piling up, the lawn hasn't been mowed in weeks, and the kids have soccer and yoga and swimming, and when was the last time you had a chance to just sit down with a cup of tea?), you, like me, have undoubtedly been there. If you just grit your teeth and focus, really concentrate, surely you can get it all done. (And then you can have that cup of tea!)

Of course, you can't. Not only can't you get it all done, but chances are you'll reach the end of the day exhausted, irritable, and angry with yourself. You'll be angry either because you "failed," or because you recognize (too late!) that you set yourself up for failure - or both. Either way, of course, you're in a no-win, all-lose position. Not fun, and not necessary, either.

Fortunately for me, I stopped and listened to that little voice telling me what trouble I was getting myself into. Not only did I stop and listen, but I actually agreed with it instead of arguing.

Once I recognized the impossibility of what I was expecting of myself, I was able to look at that "need" to get things done. I asked myself one simple question: "What's on fire here?"

In other words, what on that list was going to have real, tangible, and serious consequences if it didn't get done? Where on the list were the truly time-sensitive actions that, left uncompleted, would result in a broken promise, an important opportunity lost, a critical step missed in a larger project or stream of events?

Everything else didn't "need" to get done that day. In all probability many of those tasks would be "on fire" later in the week, but right now, that day, they weren't burning. And that meant they could be postponed. With luck and a little concentration (and maybe some delegation!), I would be able to get to them before they went up in flames, but I wasn't going to worry about them that day.

What I found truly fascinating about this process was that it resulted in a very different list of priorities than I would have had if I'd just started with what most appealed to me, or what I thought at first glance were the most urgent tasks. And it was absolutely the right prioritization.

That question - "What's on fire here?" - has become a big part of my planning process now. While I obviously prefer to get to things before they are in crisis mode, this question ensures that I'm focusing on the real priorities, rather than the things I want to do or think I should do.

So next time you hear that little voice of reality saying you can't possibly complete all the tasks on your "need to do it" list, I challenge you to stop, listen, and ask yourself, "What's on fire here?" And then do those things, and postpone the rest.

"A major part of successful living lies in the ability to put first things first. Indeed, the reason most major goals are not achieved is that we spend our time doing second things first." Robert J. McKain, author, nationality and dates unknown.

(c)Grace L. Judson

Helping professionals who feel trapped and want a sense of direction

About the Author

Grace Judson is the founder of and driving force behind Svaha Concepts.

Stuck in a "success plateau" and having a hard time figuring out reasons to get out of bed in the morning? For more information or to access my free resources (including my free newsletter), be sure to visit Svaha Concepts' website.

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